High pressure to block incoming storms from reaching most of Pacific Northwest
Rain showers are forecast for many west side and British Columbia locations on Monday but most people will dry out beginning Tuesday thanks to high pressure rebuilding in the Western United States. The storm track will be aimed at the B.C. North Coast during this period so Bella Coola and Prince Rupert will remain wet.
High pressure onshore is particularly effective at blocking incoming storm systems from reaching the region. We experienced a similar pattern about two weeks ago as high pressure offshore aimed storms at Alaska.
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Temperatures will be warm for many, with Vancouver, B.C. looking at highs close to 12ºC (54ºF) this week under mostly sunny skies. The Columbia Basin seems likely to have the temperature inversion resume, which would keep that region cloudy and cold.
The orientation of the storm track is such that the interior of British Columbia will be dry despite heavy rain along the Coast. Prince George and points south are likely to be rain free but to the north, Dease Lake and the surrounding region will see some snow.
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This weather pattern will continue the poor snowpack seen so far in Washington, Oregon, and Southwest British Columbia. Not only will the week be mostly dry, warm temperatures will continue to melt what snow we do have in the mountains. Watering restrictions are already expected in the Lower Mainland this summer.
Yakima River reservoirs actually continue to be healthy for this time of year but this doesn’t tell the whole story. In an average year, water in these reservoirs peaks around early June. If the current pattern continues, we will probably see an earlier peak with water resources scarce by the end of summer.
Mountain snow is important for Yakima Valley agriculture, as it is for other districts that irrigate off smaller rivers like the Walla Walla. Having mountain snow slowly melt into June is like having moderate rainfall every day into the summer months.
Without it, resource managers will have a difficult time maintaining healthy water availability toward the end of the summer and water restrictions will likely be needed. The reservoirs are mostly full right now because of the multiple strong atmospheric rivers that brought rain in December and early January. The water we have now is not from snowfall.
There is a small hint of a possible cold snap/snow event in the Pacific Northwest toward the end of February but there is a lot of uncertainty and, unlike the prospect of the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl, it’s far too early to board the hype train.
There is a sudden stratospheric warming event starting to occur at the North Pole. This can amplify waves in the jet stream which in turn opens up the possibility of pulling very cold Arctic air south into the mid-latitudes. What we don’t know is where exactly this cold will land.
Over the past five days or so, models have offered wildly different solutions. Big Pacific Northwest snow is among these, but so is another major cold snap for the Great Lakes Region, heavy snow for Scandinavia, and deep cold for Siberia. It is something to watch, but we are far from spiking the football on this despite what some social media hype machines would like you to believe.
The featured image is 500 mb heights for Wednesday showing high pressure near Reno, Nevada which will be blocking storms from reaching the Pacific Northwest.
