PMC COVlD Update, Week of Sep 7, 2026
◾️33 states/territories with outbreaks (see Alt)
◾️Highest levels nationally since March 5th
◾️1 in 86 Americans estimated actively infectious
◾️Peak expected soon, but some caveats
THREAD (1/5) 🧵
Discussion
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Sep 7, 2026
◾️33 states/territories with outbreaks (see Alt)
◾️Highest levels nationally since March 5th
◾️1 in 86 Americans estimated actively infectious
◾️Peak expected soon, but some caveats
THREAD (1/5) 🧵
@daniel_e_park See also this post. There is uncertainty in the peak, but the CDC map posted tells almost nothing useful with regard to forecasting peaks.
https://bird.makeup/users/michael_hoerger/statuses/2085828245208088993
COVlD levels are especially high in the Pacific and Deep South states.
Check local levels at https://pmc19.com/map
THREAD (2/5) 🧵
The forecast suggests national COVlD levels will peak soon.
However, there is a tension in the model between historical norms (transmission should begin to drop) versus recent data (levels should rise a little longer). The CDC forecasts show similar ambiguity.
THREAD (3/5) 🧵
In this 13th wave, PMC estimates >3.5 million weekly infections in the US, which are expected to promote up to 1,600 excess deaths.
Estimates link CDC and Biobot wastewater data to IHME case estimates and Swiss Re excess mortality forecasts.
THREAD (4/5) 🧵
The CDC recently downshifted the categories and colors it uses to describe all current and historical COVlD levels.
Our state stables show both, and the interactive map allows you to toggle to the version you prefer.
THREAD (5/5) 🧵
https://bird.makeup/users/michael_hoerger/statuses/2089089290089181242
COVlD levels are especially high in the Pacific and Deep South states.
Check local levels at https://pmc19.com/map
THREAD (2/5) 🧵
@michael_hoerger Thanks - the CDC CFA forecast reproductive rate shows broadly increasing rates (not slowing) in the latest data. I agree historically the peak should be soon, but also could be a broad tail setting up for a higher winter seeding given the late timing of the summer wave.
https://bird.makeup/users/daniel_e_park/statuses/2097419858774299025