rat king @MikeIsaac a frustrating thing about all the "TK percent chance we die" headlines is that researchers can say any number and non-technical people will just be like "damn well that guy's in tech, im worried" show your work! is this about scaling laws or some arxiv file ive yet to read? ... Nate Silver @NateSilver538 The Al risk people actually do show their work! There are hundreds of working papers, thousands of LessWrong posts, literally entire best- selling books about this.