My 2026 Open Social Web Predictions: includes fediverse predctions focuesed on work being done by: @dansup @surf @Mastodon @piefedadmin @ghostexplore @rimu @activitypub.blog @anewsocial @fedify @fed.brid.gy @altstore See what you think. What did I miss? https://www.timothychambers.net/2025/12/23/my-open-social-web-predictions.html
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Discussion
> HOT TAKE: At least one major national government or major city will launch an official presence on BOTH Bluesky AND the ActivityPub Fediverse in 2026 — and it will be a European government.
Is
https://ec.social-network.europa.eu/@EUCommission already considered?
@penyaskito @tchambers There is also https://social.bund.de - the mastodon instance of the German federal government
@jornfranke @penyaskito Yes, this prediction is that a new entry will join.
@tchambers Whether you're right on all counts or not, that's an impressive amount of activity out there---and a correspondingly impressive list of predictions.
@tchambers Great list, thanks for doing this. Happy to be contributing to the fediverse in the year to come!
E2EE DMs coming to the fediverse might be noteworthy (although it's almost a given it will be achieved). https://socialwebfoundation.org/2025/12/19/implementing-encrypted-messaging-over-activitypub/
(Fediscovery is listed twice, by the way.)
@mellifluousbox Good point on E2EE as a biggie I missed. I do think that will change a lot. And will fix the accidental double inclusion of Fediscovery, I think I moved it into a new catagory and forgot to remove the old one. Will fix.
@tchambers Interesting as always! I'm curious, what grade would you give yourself on your 2025 predictions?
@jdp23 I did actually grade me on that one in my recent post evaluating exactly how each did. https://www.timothychambers.net/2025/12/20/my-open-social-web-prediction.html
C+ to B- or so overall.
But the point of these isn't always to be correct (tho I try) but to spur conversations and other additional predictions.
@tchambers oops sorry, I hadn't seen that post -- thanks! Something that I don't think anybody (including me) predicted was that active usage of both Bluesky and the non-Threads ActivityPub Fediverse would decrease over the course 2025.
@jdp23 Churn will be an issue both platforms will need to grapple with next year. But both platforms have a pretty solid base to build on. But i do suspect the days of big exodus waves from X are done. Most that would leave and go somewhere else have.
@tchambers yeah @laurenshof had a good post a while ago noting that waves from Xitter aren't happening any more (at least for now). But, the centralized options in general continue to get worse so I'm sure that newcomers will continue to show up here and in the ATmosphere.
@tchambers @dansup @surf @Mastodon @piefedadmin @ghostexplore @rimu @activitypub.blog @fedify @fed.brid.gy @altstore @anewsocial
bluesky is frustrating because they are sucking up so much of the decentralized social media oxygen while we won't know if their model works until they decide on a business model. only then will we know if users who don't want to bear that cost can leave but stay connected, the true test of whether something is decentralized or not.
@wjmaggos @tchambers Not only that but I also see a non-zero chance that Bluesky-the-company could decide to have ATProto as a semi-walled garden – that they make a 180° turn on cross-protocol interoperability.
But I hope that I'm wrong on this.
@tchambers Things that also come 2026 thanks to #NLnet:
#WordPress users will be able to create polls for the Fediverse.
WordPress in combination with #GatherPress will offer federated RSVP for events.
Interoperability of Events will improve, e.g. Mobilizon will be able to receive events from other applications.
#Lauti, an event management tool for medium sized communities, will join the Fediverse.
@tchambers Things that also come 2026 thanks to NLnet:
#WordPress users will be able to create polls for the Fediverse.
WordPress in combination with #GatherPress will offer federated RSVP for events.
Interoperability of Events will improve, e.g. Mobilizon will be able to receive events from other applications.
#Lauti, an event management tool for medium sized communities, will join the Fediverse.
@tchambers Things that also come 2026 thanks to NLnet:
WordPress users will be able to create polls for the Fediverse.
WordPress in combination with GatherPress will offer federated RSVP for events.
Interoperability of Events will improve, e.g. Mobilizon will be able to receive events from other applications.
Lauti, an event management tool for medium sized communities, will join the Fediverse.
Bonfire community
This is a bonfire demo instance for testing purposes
Automatic federation enabled