From this side of the Atlantic (the UK side) it looks like the US is slipping towards civil war, goaded on by a President wanting to invoke the Insurrection Act as a way of militarising his political power.
I'd be interested if followers of these posts in the US think the same or whether the media's distorting mirror is deceiving us about the gravity of the situation...
(Civil) analysis & contextual answers boosted & thanks in advance for sharing.
Into the unknown both hope and fear reside.
As a 3rd generation American, LGBTQ, person of color living in the very rural part of the likely bluest state, I don't experience the US as on the precipice of Civil War. However, I am not so sanguine that we won't end up there, anything is possible.
The US is a massive nation. I grew up on the farthest West state, Hawai'i, the newest state in the Union, and now live in one of the original and oldest states - Massachusetts. There are MAGA here, but they are outnumbered. Massachusetts is very blue. But because we are so geographically isolated, to survive, our local culture is a balance of self-sufficiency and interdependence both Blue and Red. Armed conflict would be an irrevocable breach of rural local identity. And because we are rural, lots of folks hunt and have guns, even Democrats. So if this devolves into armed conflict rural Blue New England won't go without a fight.
There are lots of serial flashpoints, and those get media, which is what you see overseas. But know this is Trump's standard - one flashpoint at a time, so far. Trump does not appear to have the troops, organization, discipline or ability to manage a national civil war. And no other fascist ambitious current MAGA leader has the engendered cult loyalty and charisma to trigger and win a Civil War.
I actually believe the opposite about Trump's power - I believe he peaked on July 4 2025 with his substantial budget bill destruction of significant parts of the US (w Congressional MAGA complicity) and his greatest win has actually triggered his downhill slide and he's is angry, desperate, in denial, fuminating and at his most chaotic dangerous recklessness as he tries to erase the inevitable fate that he is seeing awaits him. But time, gravity, and history are now his inescapable enemies. He will get worse, and his minions worsen, but he's no longer inevitable. You can see it in the those polls on his cratering popularity, and on the MAGA who are abandoning their Congressional seats. Corporate media here and over there are both trailing, not leading, indicators. They missed the trends that brought Trump to power, they are missing the trends that signal his end.
@pattykimura @ChrisMayLA6 Not in the US anymore, but a thought from across the water. It's a good time for civil resistance to organize at the local level. Simple things like trusted contact networks, stocking in food for strike action, getting protest & med kit ready. It can be seen as a preparation race with the junta against the day that the country goes on tilt.
I just watched a long but engrossing video by Will Stancil driving in a small Honda Fit doggedly filming and tailing and reporting on two ICE vehicles in Minneapolis. He is live on the phone with a centralized coordinating base where he gives constant updates on location and movement while honking his horn in repeated beeps to warn others and rip anonymity from ICE. Apparently the Resistance has separate districts covering the city with 24/7 coordinated volunteer observers in cars (over 200 drivers in each district) and on bikes and on foot (over 1000 observers in each district with whistles and phones) all following, reporting to a centralized bank that is notifying and coordinating citywide coverage to protect their city. At one point he hears someone else following ICE who reports there is a car between her and the ICE vehicles she is tailing and reports his plate and car description. He happily exclaims "That's me!" The two ICE appear to split up, and he follows the first (she warns him of an ICE tactic to try to shake him) and she says she'll stay on the second. ICE gives up trying to shake them, as the two spotters work together to tail.
They can mask, but they can't hide.
Resistance is alive, coordinated, volunteer, and growing. Resistance is NOT futile.
The next ICE target will learn from Minneapolis, which learned from Charlotte, which learned from Chicago, which learned from LA.
We're getting better at resisting. This is teaching a whole generation of patriots practical creative, clever, necessary tools for defending our democracy. Don't count us average Americans out.
@pattykimura @fgbjr @ChrisMayLA6 All without the Dems lifting a finger to help --> remember that
@ChrisMayLA6 The situation is indeed very grave however a civil war, an organized civil war, is unlikely.
* We are spread out both geographically and in terms of common, binding values.
* We are heavily sedated both medically and recreationally.
* Finally, the people who are out on the streets are - for the most part - dedicated to some form of the principles of non-violence. We are not committed to, nor do we take pleasure in, vicious acts of violence and control - unlike ICE and those who hold and loose their leashes.
Of course, I don't have a crystal ball 🔮 to see the future and how this will ultimately play out. I have my hopes for a positive outcome but in the meantime there's a lot of suffering.
#uspol
#ice #civilwar
@ChrisMayLA6 To have a civil war, you'd have to have government bodies willing to fight the Nazis. That is not happening, nor is it realistic.
An uprising? Well we might be headed towards that hella fast. But it ain't gonna be a "Civil War" because the lib establishment will surrender before they start shooting.
@ChrisMayLA6
The situation is, if anything, worse and more serious in many places than indicated by media. However, I would caution ppl not to use a "slipping toward civil war" framing in their mind to understand things.
US is a very, very large place. Conditions are heterogenous. You read/hear about the worst places.
More encouraging trends are harder to see.
This is something different than "civil war". Thinking it is will only blind ppl to the full dynamics and processes happening.
Yes I wondered about that - its it limited to a smallish number of areas... but on the other hand what's to stop it spreading?
@ChrisMayLA6
The active violence is in a small # of cities - at one time. The active conflicts are more like rotating instigations. But the awareness, anxiety, and opposition is def spreading big time thru US.
The numbers and time do not favor the violent oppressors - and they know it. Big long run conflicts like wars or revolutions take time, skilled leadership/people, and logistics & materiel.
This won't be quick, I fear.
@econproph @ChrisMayLA6 What confuses me is why the people aren't defending themselves. The USA has things like the second amendment, stand your ground, castle doctrine, and more guns than people - why aren't ICE goons getting shot left right and centre?
@TimWardCam @econproph @ChrisMayLA6
Perhaps because the resistance is smart enough to realise that escalation by shooting ICE agents is exactly what MAGA want? The more that peaceful innocent protesters and bystanders get murdered, the more the opposition grows.
@ChrisMayLA6 The media distortion is very real. US will self-correct in the next election cycle, but my primary fear is that China and Russia will not let this opportunity slip away. The US/world has never been more vulnerable. I think the Taiwan and Baltic escalations will be after the US elections, like in late November or December. NATO will be sans US by then, but Europe can handle Russia.
I'm interested in the idea of self-correction - from here it looks like the forces with & behind Trump are seeking to ensure such a self-correction is not possible.... are you saying that is a misapprehension?
@ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps I think we will be very fortunate if there are elections this year, and too many people are still clinging to that as of things are normal
@Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps People say 'Trump can't cancel elections, it's against the law', forgetting that Trump is a terrorist, who doesn't care about the law. He'll cheat as much as anyone has ever cheated before, even if it means staging another bloody-coup.
@Morgawr @Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps
Of course, there will be American elections. Even Russia has elections.
The questions are who can vote and who counts? Republicans have been rigging both for years.
Even if the House of Representative flips (likely), Trump has made Congress irrelevant. It won't matter. We are now in a monarchy.
Dems MUST flip the Senate too, and stop his horrific appointments, to even start towards a "self-correction".
@TCatInReality @Morgawr @Crowsinger @ChrisMayLA6 @lukeryanps
The USA hasn't completely "corrected" the damage done by Regan. WW2, WW1, Vietnam, Nixon, the Civil Rights movement, Jim Crow, the KKK, the Civil War, the genocide of Native Americans, the War of 1812 and the Revolution and war of Independence.
All countries are like this. Countries lurch from one disaster to another. They all brush shit under the carpet instead of shoveling it up and getting rid of it.
The USA has about 450 years of culture / history (provided you don't count Native Americans that is, which of course many Americans don't) Here in the UK we are still dealing with the consequences of being invaded by Normans, Vikings, Saxons and even the Romans. That's 2000 years or so. Imagine the shit piled up under the carpets of China and India with at least 4000 years of continuous culture under their belts. I bet the carpets almost touch the ceilings.
@ChrisMayLA6 Those opposing ICE and such have not moved to violence…..yet. They have been using peaceful means like whistles, noise, recording and exposing who and where ICE are. But I think ICE are escalating, regardless. Their brutality has the backing of Noem, Homan, Millar and such. Laws and boundaries are being ignored. Republican political unease is being ignored. Trump and his administration are pushing for an autocracy/despot regime. If it goes to Civil War it will be very very bad.
@HarriettMB The USA has been in a persistent civil war since a century before its foundation. Mostly against non-white people, but also against working class people.
It is labelled as a "civil war" only when the endemic war on non-white America and poor America is turned onto chunks of white middle-class America.
But don't let the colonist labels deceive. This is not the start of the American civil war. This is just an intensification of one front of the continuous civil war.
