#Farage says '"Afghan nationals are 22x more likely to be convicted of rape"
#Bbclaurak replies "But the numbers are conflicting"
NF "No they're not it's pretty clear to me and ..
[THIS IS THE IMPORTANT BIT]
.. it's pretty clear to the British public"
The ONS and the MoJ categorize data by ethnic groups rather than by country of origin
FOI requests to police forces show very low numbers for Afghan nationals. Eg, in Dorset (2024), only 3 out of 186 recorded sexual offenses (approx. 1.6%)
@Geri
These stats have nothing to do with each other.
22 times higher may be true if the number for non-Afghans is super low. Say there's 1 rapist in 10,000 in the general population, and 22 in 10,000 among Afghans. This does not mean that a large percentage of Afghans are rapists.
3 Afghans out of 186 offenses can be lots (if there are 5 Afghans in Dorset) or nothing (if there are 50,000).
"Well, carefully calculated statistical data is usually not helping our messaging", he failed to add
