Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 25 2025 - 00Z Sat Dec 27 2025

...Life-threatening flash flooding continues over Southern California
today and tomorrow; heavy mountain snow and high winds also ongoing...

...Impactful wintry weather to spread from the Upper Midwest into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Friday...

...Unseasonable, record breaking warm weather continues across the
Nation's mid-section through Christmas into this weekend...

This afternoon, an analysis of our weather pattern across the Lower 48
highlights an anomalous mid-level high pressure ridge anchored over the
Nation's Heartland, which is flanked by an equally amplified trough over
the Eastern Pacific. Unfortunately, this configuration will maintain
life-threatening atmospheric river conditions focused over Southern
California through Christmas day, where widespread flash flooding is
underway amid persistent 0.5" to 1"/hour rainfall rates. Accordingly, a
rare High Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect through tomorrow
morning over Southern California, which includes the Los Angeles
metropolitan area. Flash/urban flooding aside, the barrage of heavy
rainfall will also lead to dangerous rock/mud slides across Southern
California through Christmas day. Users in the affected area are
encouraged to have multiple ways of receiving warning information, NEVER
drive through flooded roads, and be aware that the threshold for
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 320 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Dec 25 2025 - 00Z Sat Dec 27 2025 ...Life-threatening flash flooding continues over Southern California today and tomorrow; heavy mountain snow and high winds also ongoing... ...Impactful wintry weather to spread from the Upper Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Friday... ...Unseasonable, record breaking warm weather continues across the Nation's mid-section through Christmas into this weekend... This afternoon, an analysis of our weather pattern across the Lower 48 highlights an anomalous mid-level high pressure ridge anchored over the Nation's Heartland, which is flanked by an equally amplified trough over the Eastern Pacific. Unfortunately, this configuration will maintain life-threatening atmospheric river conditions focused over Southern California through Christmas day, where widespread flash flooding is underway amid persistent 0.5" to 1"/hour rainfall rates. Accordingly, a rare High Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect through tomorrow morning over Southern California, which includes the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Flash/urban flooding aside, the barrage of heavy rainfall will also lead to dangerous rock/mud slides across Southern California through Christmas day. Users in the affected area are encouraged to have multiple ways of receiving warning information, NEVER drive through flooded roads, and be aware that the threshold for
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 25 2025 - 00Z Sat Dec 27 2025

...Life-threatening flash flooding continues over Southern California
today and tomorrow; heavy mountain snow and high winds also ongoing...

...Impactful wintry weather to spread from the Upper Midwest into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Friday...

...Unseasonable, record breaking warm weather continues across the
Nation's mid-section through Christmas into this weekend...

This afternoon, an analysis of our weather pattern across the Lower 48
highlights an anomalous mid-level high pressure ridge anchored over the
Nation's Heartland, which is flanked by an equally amplified trough over
the Eastern Pacific. Unfortunately, this configuration will maintain
life-threatening atmospheric river conditions focused over Southern
California through Christmas day, where widespread flash flooding is
underway amid persistent 0.5" to 1"/hour rainfall rates. Accordingly, a
rare High Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect through tomorrow
morning over Southern California, which includes the Los Angeles
metropolitan area. Flash/urban flooding aside, the barrage of heavy
rainfall will also lead to dangerous rock/mud slides across Southern
California through Christmas day. Users in the affected area are
encouraged to have multiple ways of receiving warning information, NEVER
drive through flooded roads, and be aware that the threshold for
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 320 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Dec 25 2025 - 00Z Sat Dec 27 2025 ...Life-threatening flash flooding continues over Southern California today and tomorrow; heavy mountain snow and high winds also ongoing... ...Impactful wintry weather to spread from the Upper Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Friday... ...Unseasonable, record breaking warm weather continues across the Nation's mid-section through Christmas into this weekend... This afternoon, an analysis of our weather pattern across the Lower 48 highlights an anomalous mid-level high pressure ridge anchored over the Nation's Heartland, which is flanked by an equally amplified trough over the Eastern Pacific. Unfortunately, this configuration will maintain life-threatening atmospheric river conditions focused over Southern California through Christmas day, where widespread flash flooding is underway amid persistent 0.5" to 1"/hour rainfall rates. Accordingly, a rare High Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect through tomorrow morning over Southern California, which includes the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Flash/urban flooding aside, the barrage of heavy rainfall will also lead to dangerous rock/mud slides across Southern California through Christmas day. Users in the affected area are encouraged to have multiple ways of receiving warning information, NEVER drive through flooded roads, and be aware that the threshold for
Powerful Offshore Low Brings Heavy Rain, Snow, and Wind to California Through Friday Key Messages for California Atmospheric River 
Weather Prediction Center 
College Park, Maryland ●Widespread Rainfall 
Periodic heavy precipitation with prolonged impacts continues 
across California through Friday from offshore low pressure 
that follows the ongoing atmospheric river. 
●Continued Flash Flood Risk 
The focus of the atmospheric river is shifting east of the LA 
Basin this afternoon and will weaken overnight. Additional 
rounds of heavy rain can be expected along the California 
coast and into the Central Valley through Friday. Additional 
life-threatening flash flooding is possible in Southern 
California through Thursday. 
●Mountain Snow Through Friday 
Additional heavy snow will occur in the Sierra Nevada and 
other mountain ranges through Friday, with lower snow levels 
than previous rounds. Travel will remain difficult to impossible 
over the passes due to snow and strong winds. Several feet of 
heavy wet snow may also cause snow load impacts. 
●Strong Winds Through Thursday 
Windy conditions continue across California through Thursday. 
Saturated soils should lead to further tree damage and power 
outages are likely. Difficult travel also persists, especially for 
high-profile vehicles. Issued: Wed, Dec 24, 2025 
2:10 PM PST 
For more information go to: 
 www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov  and www.weather.gov  Excessive Rain Outlooks Through Friday Winter Storm Severity Index Through Fri
Powerful Offshore Low Brings Heavy Rain, Snow, and Wind to California Through Friday Key Messages for California Atmospheric River Weather Prediction Center College Park, Maryland ●Widespread Rainfall Periodic heavy precipitation with prolonged impacts continues across California through Friday from offshore low pressure that follows the ongoing atmospheric river. ●Continued Flash Flood Risk The focus of the atmospheric river is shifting east of the LA Basin this afternoon and will weaken overnight. Additional rounds of heavy rain can be expected along the California coast and into the Central Valley through Friday. Additional life-threatening flash flooding is possible in Southern California through Thursday. ●Mountain Snow Through Friday Additional heavy snow will occur in the Sierra Nevada and other mountain ranges through Friday, with lower snow levels than previous rounds. Travel will remain difficult to impossible over the passes due to snow and strong winds. Several feet of heavy wet snow may also cause snow load impacts. ●Strong Winds Through Thursday Windy conditions continue across California through Thursday. Saturated soils should lead to further tree damage and power outages are likely. Difficult travel also persists, especially for high-profile vehicles. Issued: Wed, Dec 24, 2025 2:10 PM PST For more information go to: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.weather.gov Excessive Rain Outlooks Through Friday Winter Storm Severity Index Through Fri
Powerful Offshore Low Brings Heavy Rain, Snow, and Wind to California Through Friday Key Messages for California Atmospheric River 
Weather Prediction Center 
College Park, Maryland ●Widespread Rainfall 
Periodic heavy precipitation with prolonged impacts continues 
across California through Friday from offshore low pressure 
that follows the ongoing atmospheric river. 
●Continued Flash Flood Risk 
The focus of the atmospheric river is shifting east of the LA 
Basin this afternoon and will weaken overnight. Additional 
rounds of heavy rain can be expected along the California 
coast and into the Central Valley through Friday. Additional 
life-threatening flash flooding is possible in Southern 
California through Thursday. 
●Mountain Snow Through Friday 
Additional heavy snow will occur in the Sierra Nevada and 
other mountain ranges through Friday, with lower snow levels 
than previous rounds. Travel will remain difficult to impossible 
over the passes due to snow and strong winds. Several feet of 
heavy wet snow may also cause snow load impacts. 
●Strong Winds Through Thursday 
Windy conditions continue across California through Thursday. 
Saturated soils should lead to further tree damage and power 
outages are likely. Difficult travel also persists, especially for 
high-profile vehicles. Issued: Wed, Dec 24, 2025 
2:10 PM PST 
For more information go to: 
 www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov  and www.weather.gov  Excessive Rain Outlooks Through Friday Winter Storm Severity Index Through Fri
Powerful Offshore Low Brings Heavy Rain, Snow, and Wind to California Through Friday Key Messages for California Atmospheric River Weather Prediction Center College Park, Maryland ●Widespread Rainfall Periodic heavy precipitation with prolonged impacts continues across California through Friday from offshore low pressure that follows the ongoing atmospheric river. ●Continued Flash Flood Risk The focus of the atmospheric river is shifting east of the LA Basin this afternoon and will weaken overnight. Additional rounds of heavy rain can be expected along the California coast and into the Central Valley through Friday. Additional life-threatening flash flooding is possible in Southern California through Thursday. ●Mountain Snow Through Friday Additional heavy snow will occur in the Sierra Nevada and other mountain ranges through Friday, with lower snow levels than previous rounds. Travel will remain difficult to impossible over the passes due to snow and strong winds. Several feet of heavy wet snow may also cause snow load impacts. ●Strong Winds Through Thursday Windy conditions continue across California through Thursday. Saturated soils should lead to further tree damage and power outages are likely. Difficult travel also persists, especially for high-profile vehicles. Issued: Wed, Dec 24, 2025 2:10 PM PST For more information go to: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and www.weather.gov Excessive Rain Outlooks Through Friday Winter Storm Severity Index Through Fri
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025

...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Wednesday...

...Moderate to heavy snow over the Northeast and Sierra Nevada Mountains...

...Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Great Lakes...

A system moving off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning will have a
front lingering across the Southeast through Friday. Moisture streaming
northward out of the Gulf will aid in developing rain over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday afternoon.

A wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and move eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by
Thursday morning. The system will usher in rain over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic by Christmas morning. Along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over
parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Christmas Eve
into Christmas Day. In addition, as the low moves away from New England,
moderate to heavy snow will develop over New England through Wednesday
Afternoon. Snow will continue over the Northeast on Christmas.

On Wednesday, moisture and upper-level impulses from the Pacific will
stream eastward over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, as a front
moves inland over the West Coast. The system will prod
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 138 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025 ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Wednesday... ...Moderate to heavy snow over the Northeast and Sierra Nevada Mountains... ...Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Great Lakes... A system moving off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning will have a front lingering across the Southeast through Friday. Moisture streaming northward out of the Gulf will aid in developing rain over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday afternoon. A wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and move eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by Thursday morning. The system will usher in rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Christmas morning. Along the northern edge of the precipitation shield, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. In addition, as the low moves away from New England, moderate to heavy snow will develop over New England through Wednesday Afternoon. Snow will continue over the Northeast on Christmas. On Wednesday, moisture and upper-level impulses from the Pacific will stream eastward over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, as a front moves inland over the West Coast. The system will prod
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025

...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Wednesday...

...Moderate to heavy snow over the Northeast and Sierra Nevada Mountains...

...Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Great Lakes...

A system moving off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning will have a
front lingering across the Southeast through Friday. Moisture streaming
northward out of the Gulf will aid in developing rain over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday afternoon.

A wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and move eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by
Thursday morning. The system will usher in rain over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic by Christmas morning. Along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over
parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Christmas Eve
into Christmas Day. In addition, as the low moves away from New England,
moderate to heavy snow will develop over New England through Wednesday
Afternoon. Snow will continue over the Northeast on Christmas.

On Wednesday, moisture and upper-level impulses from the Pacific will
stream eastward over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, as a front
moves inland over the West Coast. The system will prod
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 138 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025 ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Wednesday... ...Moderate to heavy snow over the Northeast and Sierra Nevada Mountains... ...Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Great Lakes... A system moving off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning will have a front lingering across the Southeast through Friday. Moisture streaming northward out of the Gulf will aid in developing rain over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday afternoon. A wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and move eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by Thursday morning. The system will usher in rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Christmas morning. Along the northern edge of the precipitation shield, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. In addition, as the low moves away from New England, moderate to heavy snow will develop over New England through Wednesday Afternoon. Snow will continue over the Northeast on Christmas. On Wednesday, moisture and upper-level impulses from the Pacific will stream eastward over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, as a front moves inland over the West Coast. The system will prod
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025

...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Wednesday...

...Moderate to heavy snow over the Northeast and Sierra Nevada Mountains...

...Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Great Lakes...

A system moving off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning will have a
front lingering across the Southeast through Friday. Moisture streaming
northward out of the Gulf will aid in developing rain over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday afternoon.

A wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and move eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by
Thursday morning. The system will usher in rain over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic by Christmas morning. Along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over
parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Christmas Eve
into Christmas Day. In addition, as the low moves away from New England,
moderate to heavy snow will develop over New England through Wednesday
Afternoon. Snow will continue over the Northeast on Christmas.

On Wednesday, moisture and upper-level impulses from the Pacific will
stream eastward over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, as a front
moves inland over the West Coast. The system will prod
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 138 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025 ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Wednesday... ...Moderate to heavy snow over the Northeast and Sierra Nevada Mountains... ...Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Great Lakes... A system moving off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning will have a front lingering across the Southeast through Friday. Moisture streaming northward out of the Gulf will aid in developing rain over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday afternoon. A wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and move eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by Thursday morning. The system will usher in rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Christmas morning. Along the northern edge of the precipitation shield, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. In addition, as the low moves away from New England, moderate to heavy snow will develop over New England through Wednesday Afternoon. Snow will continue over the Northeast on Christmas. On Wednesday, moisture and upper-level impulses from the Pacific will stream eastward over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, as a front moves inland over the West Coast. The system will prod
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025

...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Wednesday...

...Moderate to heavy snow over the Northeast and Sierra Nevada Mountains...

...Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Great Lakes...

A system moving off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning will have a
front lingering across the Southeast through Friday. Moisture streaming
northward out of the Gulf will aid in developing rain over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday afternoon.

A wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and move eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by
Thursday morning. The system will usher in rain over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic by Christmas morning. Along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over
parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Christmas Eve
into Christmas Day. In addition, as the low moves away from New England,
moderate to heavy snow will develop over New England through Wednesday
Afternoon. Snow will continue over the Northeast on Christmas.

On Wednesday, moisture and upper-level impulses from the Pacific will
stream eastward over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, as a front
moves inland over the West Coast. The system will prod
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 138 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 12Z Fri Dec 26 2025 ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Wednesday... ...Moderate to heavy snow over the Northeast and Sierra Nevada Mountains... ...Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Great Lakes... A system moving off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning will have a front lingering across the Southeast through Friday. Moisture streaming northward out of the Gulf will aid in developing rain over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday afternoon. A wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and move eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians by Thursday morning. The system will usher in rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Christmas morning. Along the northern edge of the precipitation shield, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic overnight Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. In addition, as the low moves away from New England, moderate to heavy snow will develop over New England through Wednesday Afternoon. Snow will continue over the Northeast on Christmas. On Wednesday, moisture and upper-level impulses from the Pacific will stream eastward over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California, as a front moves inland over the West Coast. The system will prod
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 00Z Fri Dec 26 2025

...Strong atmospheric river brings heavy rain, snow, and wind to
California through Friday...

...Moderate to heavy snow continues over New England today; freezing rain
possible along the Northern Tier Thursday...

...Unseasonable warmth forecast for much of the Lower 48 through Christmas
Day...

Across the Lower 48, much of our weather pattern remains dominated by an
anomalous upper-ridge anchored over the Nation's Heartland and a highly
amplified trough upstream over the Eastern Pacific. This configuration is
expected to persist through the end of the work week, in turn supporting
dangerous atmospheric river conditions across California through Friday.
To address the heavy rainfall forecast first, the threat of particularly
heavy rainfall is expected to increase over Southern California (including
the Los Angeles metro) late tonight ahead of a deepening low pressure
wave. By tomorrow morning, a rare High Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect for Southern California, where widespread 4-7" rainfall totals
(locally upwards of 9") is expected over an 18 hour time period. Remember,
WPC High Risk days are a BIG DEAL: 80% of all flood related damages and
30% of all flood related fatalities occur in High Risk areas. Users in
these areas are encouraged to remain vigilant as landslides, rockfalls,
and mudslides are also anticipa
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Dec 24 2025 - 00Z Fri Dec 26 2025 ...Strong atmospheric river brings heavy rain, snow, and wind to California through Friday... ...Moderate to heavy snow continues over New England today; freezing rain possible along the Northern Tier Thursday... ...Unseasonable warmth forecast for much of the Lower 48 through Christmas Day... Across the Lower 48, much of our weather pattern remains dominated by an anomalous upper-ridge anchored over the Nation's Heartland and a highly amplified trough upstream over the Eastern Pacific. This configuration is expected to persist through the end of the work week, in turn supporting dangerous atmospheric river conditions across California through Friday. To address the heavy rainfall forecast first, the threat of particularly heavy rainfall is expected to increase over Southern California (including the Los Angeles metro) late tonight ahead of a deepening low pressure wave. By tomorrow morning, a rare High Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Southern California, where widespread 4-7" rainfall totals (locally upwards of 9") is expected over an 18 hour time period. Remember, WPC High Risk days are a BIG DEAL: 80% of all flood related damages and 30% of all flood related fatalities occur in High Risk areas. Users in these areas are encouraged to remain vigilant as landslides, rockfalls, and mudslides are also anticipa