How “95%” escaped into the world – and why so many believed it

Text Shot: But, unlike the goldfish that forgot Napoleon was average for his time, this statistic has a halo. And this number has moved capital. It has travelled faster than its caveats. It will end up embedded in investment memos long after anyone remembers to ask what they actually measured. Worst of all, it forces the reader to do basic provenance work that much of the commentary ecosystem waved through.

So here is the standard that should apply. If a statistic is going to be cited as “MIT research,” it deserves, at minimum, a stable home and enough transparency that a sceptic can try to break it. And if it shouldn’t be cited as such, its providence should be clearly explained by the institution and by its authors.

Until that happens, the “95 percent” figure should be treated for what it is: not reliable. It is viral, vibey, methodologically weak and it buries its caveats. The report served some purpose, but what that purpose is, I’m not clear.

How “95%” escaped into the world – and why so many believed it

Text Shot: But, unlike the goldfish that forgot Napoleon was average for his time, this statistic has a halo. And this number has moved capital. It has travelled faster than its caveats. It will end up embedded in investment memos long after anyone remembers to ask what they actually measured. Worst of all, it forces the reader to do basic provenance work that much of the commentary ecosystem waved through.

So here is the standard that should apply. If a statistic is going to be cited as “MIT research,” it deserves, at minimum, a stable home and enough transparency that a sceptic can try to break it. And if it shouldn’t be cited as such, its providence should be clearly explained by the institution and by its authors.

Until that happens, the “95 percent” figure should be treated for what it is: not reliable. It is viral, vibey, methodologically weak and it buries its caveats. The report served some purpose, but what that purpose is, I’m not clear.