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@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

18z model thread appears to be starting with another HRRR banger...stays tucked in for hours and it's starting to bomb out here with axis of heavy snow about to pivot through NJ...

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Brian Kelley

@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

18z HRRR...widespread 20"+ snowfall with a number of 24"+ locations in Monmouth and Ocean counties in NJ and up in North Jersey. Philly at 17"...Trenton over 20"...plus there are a couple of hours of lighter snow left at the end of the run. Incredible to see 24 hours out. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley

@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

The 18z NAM is going to drop ~40" of snow on NJ...unreal. Already widespread 20-30" over Philly and South Jersey and the storm is still ripping.

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Brian Kelley

@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

Just an insane 18z NAM run...24"+ for Philly and nearly all of New Jersey with some 30-35" locations. Unreal at 24 hours out. 18z NAM 3K shows thundersnow (!!!) chances late Sunday into early Monday and all of NJ getting at least a foot with widespread 20"+ and a few 24"+ locations.

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Brian Kelley

@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

18z ICON still coming northwest. Philly was at around 7-8" at 12z and now gets over a foot. Most of NJ sees at least 12"+ on this run. Starting to look like 12" is the floor for most around here. Watch snow maps go way up over the next few hours. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley

@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

18z GFS...another banger...looks like Trenton gets between intense snow bands at this point, though, so we lose a bit of snowfall here (oh well...have to settle for 18.6"). Looks like an 18-24"+ snowfall for most of NJ with some 14-18" totals to the south. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley

@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

A very slight east shift on the 18z AIGFS...still looks like a general 10-20" from I-95 on southeast to the coast. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley

@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

18z UKMET? More like NU-K-MET! (As in NUKE...get it? 😀 ) Widespread 16-24"+ across NJ and Philly metro. If the trend holds, 18z Euro is going to look very similar to this. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley

@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy · 2 days ago

Like the 18z AIGFS, the 18z Euro AI ticks just slightly east of 12z. Still a solid run. Showing 12"+ along and east of the NJ Turnpike and 9-11" for Philly and Trenton. #phillywx #njwx

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