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Seth of the Fediverse
Seth of the Fediverse
@phillycodehound@indieweb.social  ·  activity timestamp 2 hours ago

#snowstorm2026 #Doylestown #BucksCounty #PA #phillywx

Snow covered trees
Snow covered trees
Snow covered trees
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Seth of the Fediverse boosted
theweatherguy
theweatherguy
@theweatherguy@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 7 hours ago

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #philly #weather #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx #snowstorm

Snow Tapering Off

The storm is well to our east and the vertical motion (Omega) near and west of Philadelphia has turned to a downward motion. Snow continues to rotate around the low into the city from the northeast along the 700 mb ... https://theweatherguy.net/

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Jonathan Arnold 🇺🇦
Jonathan Arnold 🇺🇦
@jdarnold@indieweb.social  ·  activity timestamp 6 hours ago

Morning Mastodonians!
And here I thought I was sick of #snow before! It’s only about halfway through this nor’easter, and we have probably a foot and a half of snow. I did something I don’t usually do: went out and shoveled before the storm ended. My little electric snowblower can’t handle the amount of predicted snow, so working on it halfway might help. But the wind is howling, and it’s probably going to drift up anyway. At least the dogs can get out the back door right now.
#blizzard2026

2 media
A snow-covered residential area during a snowstorm. Snowdrifts are visible along the ground, with several cars buried under snow. You can’t see it, but the wind is howling. A basketball hoop is partially visible near a tree, with a thick layer of snow blanketing the landscape. The scene appears cold and white. You can’t see it, but the wind is howling.
A snow-covered residential area during a snowstorm. Snowdrifts are visible along the ground, with several cars buried under snow. You can’t see it, but the wind is howling. A basketball hoop is partially visible near a tree, with a thick layer of snow blanketing the landscape. The scene appears cold and white. You can’t see it, but the wind is howling.
A snow-covered residential area during a snowstorm. Snowdrifts are visible along the ground, with several cars buried under snow. You can’t see it, but the wind is howling. A basketball hoop is partially visible near a tree, with a thick layer of snow blanketing the landscape. The scene appears cold and white. You can’t see it, but the wind is howling.
A snowy landscape with a white railing in the foreground. The ground is heavily covered in snow, with some snowdrifts visible. In the background, trees are faintly visible through the falling snow, creating a foggy, winter scene. The deck was bare 12 hours ago.
A snowy landscape with a white railing in the foreground. The ground is heavily covered in snow, with some snowdrifts visible. In the background, trees are faintly visible through the falling snow, creating a foggy, winter scene. The deck was bare 12 hours ago.
A snowy landscape with a white railing in the foreground. The ground is heavily covered in snow, with some snowdrifts visible. In the background, trees are faintly visible through the falling snow, creating a foggy, winter scene. The deck was bare 12 hours ago.
Seth of the Fediverse
Seth of the Fediverse
@phillycodehound@indieweb.social  ·  activity timestamp 6 hours ago

@jdarnold we got about 12" here in #Doylestown #BucksCounty #PA #phillywx in #Doylestown #BucksCounty #PA #PhillyWx

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theweatherguy
theweatherguy
@theweatherguy@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 7 hours ago

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #philly #weather #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx #snowstorm

Snow Tapering Off

The storm is well to our east and the vertical motion (Omega) near and west of Philadelphia has turned to a downward motion. Snow continues to rotate around the low into the city from the northeast along the 700 mb ... https://theweatherguy.net/

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Seth of the Fediverse boosted
theweatherguy
theweatherguy
@theweatherguy@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 23 hours ago

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #philly #weather #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx #snowstorm

Storm Update

Folks, I violated my own cardinal rule- "never look at the new model runs when the storm is in progress".

The reason: it always changes and you never know if it's a dramatic .. https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=26191

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https://theweatherguy.net/blog

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

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theweatherguy
theweatherguy
@theweatherguy@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 23 hours ago

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #philly #weather #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx #snowstorm

Storm Update

Folks, I violated my own cardinal rule- "never look at the new model runs when the storm is in progress".

The reason: it always changes and you never know if it's a dramatic .. https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=26191

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https://theweatherguy.net/blog

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp yesterday

18z HRRR continues to show widespread 18"+ snowfall for Philly and all of NJ. It continues to show 2 feet of snow around Millville, NJ, which I assume is to make weather geek Mike Trout happy, and up in NW NJ. Lots of 20"+ spots. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp yesterday

Short-range models are wobbling a bit and there have been some east shifts, but the current 14z HRRR shows our low at 4 p.m. today a touch stronger and pretty much back to where it was at this point on its 00z run last night. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Well, the Canadian models, the CMC synoptic and RGEM mesoscale model both shifted east to take I-95 out of any jackpot zone but are still big hits at the Jersey Shore.

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z UKMET is OK, but presentation should probably be better. Still, it produces a solid widespread 12"+ snowfall throughout NJ. #phillywx #njwx

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your auntifa liza 🇵🇷 🦛 🦦 and 1 other boosted
theweatherguy
theweatherguy
@theweatherguy@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #philly #weather #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx #snowstorm

Final Storm Thoughts for this Evening

The snow totals forecast I heard on TV this evening was 8-12 inches. A reasonable number, and depending on how much precipitation falls before 4 PM may make that the correct forecast. However, the latest NBM still shows higher median snow totals as shown earlier. .. https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=26191

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https://theweatherguy.net/blog

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Honestly, I'm looking at mesoscale models I never really look at, trying to find one that doesn't show at least a foot of snow along I-95 and I can't find one. Just not seeing any sign right now of a huge bust.

Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z GFS...yep...another banger despite a bit of an east shift. That winds up back west again and it's right there with the NAM. 20"+ snow for Philly and nearly all of NJ, with some 24-30" snow in parts of Ocean, Burlington and Monmouth counties. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Just saw a hi-res look at the NAM 3K snow map...there's an area of 30"+ snowfall through northern Ocean County, NJ. And while Trenton-Mercer comes in at 20.2", verbatim, a few miles east where I am is at 23". That's my target number, as I remember measuring 22" as a kid during the Blizzard of '78.

Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Even the 00z RRFS-A has finally perked up... widespread 12-18" snowfall throughout New Jersey. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

OK...00z NAM...just complete insanity...widespread 24"+ and ton of 30"+ spots and a cluster of 40"+ spots around Ocean County, NJ. Found a 44" hit in Manchester. Unlikely to happen, but it simply can't be ruled out completely. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z NAM 3K...looks just as violent as the NAM, but totals are way more restrained. Like on the HRRR, Philly gets between two intense snow bands so the city ends up a tick under 20"...but widespread 20" snowfall with 24"+ in Monmouth and northern Ocean counties in NJ #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

I don't smoke, but even I feel like I need a cigarette after that 00z NAM run. Graphics in a minute...need to check my vitals.

Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

OK...00z NAM...just complete insanity...widespread 24"+ and ton of 30"+ spots and a cluster of 40"+ spots around Ocean County, NJ. Found a 44" hit in Manchester. Unlikely to happen, but it simply can't be ruled out completely. #phillywx #njwx

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theweatherguy
theweatherguy
@theweatherguy@mastodon.social  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #philly #weather #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx #snowstorm

Final Storm Thoughts for this Evening

The snow totals forecast I heard on TV this evening was 8-12 inches. A reasonable number, and depending on how much precipitation falls before 4 PM may make that the correct forecast. However, the latest NBM still shows higher median snow totals as shown earlier. .. https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=26191

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https://theweatherguy.net/blog

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z model run thread...HRRR coming in now...rain starts to change to snow around the Jersey Shore as early as 2 p.m. here and all of NJ goes to snow by 4 p.m. This is an hour or two earlier than I've heard some meteorologists say, so be prepared.

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z HRRR gets things going with another absolute nuke. Philly gets caught between two areas of intense banding on this run so it ends up just short of 20", but a big chunk of South and Central NJ pick up over 24" with some 30"+ spots around Monmouth & Ocean counties in NJ. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

18z UKMET? More like NU-K-MET! (As in NUKE...get it? 😀 ) Widespread 16-24"+ across NJ and Philly metro. If the trend holds, 18z Euro is going to look very similar to this. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Like the 18z AIGFS, the 18z Euro AI ticks just slightly east of 12z. Still a solid run. Showing 12"+ along and east of the NJ Turnpike and 9-11" for Philly and Trenton. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

A very slight east shift on the 18z AIGFS...still looks like a general 10-20" from I-95 on southeast to the coast. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

18z UKMET? More like NU-K-MET! (As in NUKE...get it? 😀 ) Widespread 16-24"+ across NJ and Philly metro. If the trend holds, 18z Euro is going to look very similar to this. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

New NWS Mount Holly/Philly snow map...huge 18-24" area through south and central New Jersey. #phillywx #njwx

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