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joene extra and 1 other boosted
AI6YR Ben
AI6YR Ben
@ai6yr@m.ai6yr.org  ·  activity timestamp 6 hours ago

LOL when your snowplows are getting stuck

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWlYR3yNjbY

#NJwx #blizzard

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AI6YR Ben
AI6YR Ben
@ai6yr@m.ai6yr.org  ·  activity timestamp 6 hours ago

LOL when your snowplows are getting stuck

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWlYR3yNjbY

#NJwx #blizzard

Meet the man who single-handedly tracks every spaceflight mission ever
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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 8 hours ago

This band setting up right down the middle of New Jersey is looking pretty damn impressive. I might get in on the western fringes of it for awhile. Anyone just under 24" in the path of this is going to get their two feet of snow. #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp yesterday

18z HRRR continues to show widespread 18"+ snowfall for Philly and all of NJ. It continues to show 2 feet of snow around Millville, NJ, which I assume is to make weather geek Mike Trout happy, and up in NW NJ. Lots of 20"+ spots. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp yesterday

Short-range models are wobbling a bit and there have been some east shifts, but the current 14z HRRR shows our low at 4 p.m. today a touch stronger and pretty much back to where it was at this point on its 00z run last night. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Well, the Canadian models, the CMC synoptic and RGEM mesoscale model both shifted east to take I-95 out of any jackpot zone but are still big hits at the Jersey Shore.

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z UKMET is OK, but presentation should probably be better. Still, it produces a solid widespread 12"+ snowfall throughout NJ. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Honestly, I'm looking at mesoscale models I never really look at, trying to find one that doesn't show at least a foot of snow along I-95 and I can't find one. Just not seeing any sign right now of a huge bust.

Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z GFS...yep...another banger despite a bit of an east shift. That winds up back west again and it's right there with the NAM. 20"+ snow for Philly and nearly all of NJ, with some 24-30" snow in parts of Ocean, Burlington and Monmouth counties. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Just saw a hi-res look at the NAM 3K snow map...there's an area of 30"+ snowfall through northern Ocean County, NJ. And while Trenton-Mercer comes in at 20.2", verbatim, a few miles east where I am is at 23". That's my target number, as I remember measuring 22" as a kid during the Blizzard of '78.

Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Even the 00z RRFS-A has finally perked up... widespread 12-18" snowfall throughout New Jersey. #phillywx #njwx

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Joyce Bell 🇺🇦🇨🇦🇲🇽🇬🇱🚫🧊 and 1 other boosted
AI6YR Ben
AI6YR Ben
@ai6yr@m.ai6yr.org  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Yeesh, I go mostly offline for a day, and suddenly it's a Nor'easter and Blizzards, massive snowfall expected in New York...

#NYwx #NJwx #PAwx #VAwx

Many winter weather and blizzard warnings
Many winter weather and blizzard warnings
Many winter weather and blizzard warnings
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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

OK...00z NAM...just complete insanity...widespread 24"+ and ton of 30"+ spots and a cluster of 40"+ spots around Ocean County, NJ. Found a 44" hit in Manchester. Unlikely to happen, but it simply can't be ruled out completely. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z NAM 3K...looks just as violent as the NAM, but totals are way more restrained. Like on the HRRR, Philly gets between two intense snow bands so the city ends up a tick under 20"...but widespread 20" snowfall with 24"+ in Monmouth and northern Ocean counties in NJ #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

I don't smoke, but even I feel like I need a cigarette after that 00z NAM run. Graphics in a minute...need to check my vitals.

Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

OK...00z NAM...just complete insanity...widespread 24"+ and ton of 30"+ spots and a cluster of 40"+ spots around Ocean County, NJ. Found a 44" hit in Manchester. Unlikely to happen, but it simply can't be ruled out completely. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z model run thread...HRRR coming in now...rain starts to change to snow around the Jersey Shore as early as 2 p.m. here and all of NJ goes to snow by 4 p.m. This is an hour or two earlier than I've heard some meteorologists say, so be prepared.

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

00z HRRR gets things going with another absolute nuke. Philly gets caught between two areas of intense banding on this run so it ends up just short of 20", but a big chunk of South and Central NJ pick up over 24" with some 30"+ spots around Monmouth & Ocean counties in NJ. #phillywx #njwx

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AI6YR Ben
AI6YR Ben
@ai6yr@m.ai6yr.org  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Yeesh, I go mostly offline for a day, and suddenly it's a Nor'easter and Blizzards, massive snowfall expected in New York...

#NYwx #NJwx #PAwx #VAwx

Many winter weather and blizzard warnings
Many winter weather and blizzard warnings
Many winter weather and blizzard warnings
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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

18z UKMET? More like NU-K-MET! (As in NUKE...get it? 😀 ) Widespread 16-24"+ across NJ and Philly metro. If the trend holds, 18z Euro is going to look very similar to this. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

Like the 18z AIGFS, the 18z Euro AI ticks just slightly east of 12z. Still a solid run. Showing 12"+ along and east of the NJ Turnpike and 9-11" for Philly and Trenton. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

A very slight east shift on the 18z AIGFS...still looks like a general 10-20" from I-95 on southeast to the coast. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

18z UKMET? More like NU-K-MET! (As in NUKE...get it? 😀 ) Widespread 16-24"+ across NJ and Philly metro. If the trend holds, 18z Euro is going to look very similar to this. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

New NWS Mount Holly/Philly snow map...huge 18-24" area through south and central New Jersey. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

18z GFS...another banger...looks like Trenton gets between intense snow bands at this point, though, so we lose a bit of snowfall here (oh well...have to settle for 18.6"). Looks like an 18-24"+ snowfall for most of NJ with some 14-18" totals to the south. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

A very slight east shift on the 18z AIGFS...still looks like a general 10-20" from I-95 on southeast to the coast. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

18z ICON still coming northwest. Philly was at around 7-8" at 12z and now gets over a foot. Most of NJ sees at least 12"+ on this run. Starting to look like 12" is the floor for most around here. Watch snow maps go way up over the next few hours. #phillywx #njwx

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Brian Kelley
Brian Kelley
@briankelleynj.com@bsky.brid.gy  ·  activity timestamp 2 days ago

18z GFS...another banger...looks like Trenton gets between intense snow bands at this point, though, so we lose a bit of snowfall here (oh well...have to settle for 18.6"). Looks like an 18-24"+ snowfall for most of NJ with some 14-18" totals to the south. #phillywx #njwx

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