00z model run thread...HRRR coming in now...rain starts to change to snow around the Jersey Shore as early as 2 p.m. here and all of NJ goes to snow by 4 p.m. This is an hour or two earlier than I've heard some meteorologists say, so be prepared.
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The 00z NAM IS FUCKING INSANE. It is already showing multiple 30"+ spots near the Jersey Shore and the storm still looks like this! A lot more snow is incoming. Holy fucking shit!
I don't smoke, but even I feel like I need a cigarette after that 00z NAM run. Graphics in a minute...need to check my vitals.
Wow! Just saw a hi-res version of the 00z NAM model map that shows the max amount and there is actually a 50.6" hit in there somewhere along with some 49" spots. WTF?
Just saw a hi-res look at the NAM 3K snow map...there's an area of 30"+ snowfall through northern Ocean County, NJ. And while Trenton-Mercer comes in at 20.2", verbatim, a few miles east where I am is at 23". That's my target number, as I remember measuring 22" as a kid during the Blizzard of '78.
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00z ICON with a big hit...widespread 12-20" throughout South Jersey.
Honestly, I'm looking at mesoscale models I never really look at, trying to find one that doesn't show at least a foot of snow along I-95 and I can't find one. Just not seeing any sign right now of a huge bust.
Well, the Canadian models, the CMC synoptic and RGEM mesoscale model both shifted east to take I-95 out of any jackpot zone but are still big hits at the Jersey Shore.